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Why God Doesn't Exist
Urbanization was inevitable

    Assume for a moment that you are God and that you can see the entire planet in front of you in a single glance. What do
    you see? Do you see mankind spread out evenly and uniformly across the planet, one person per hectare?

    No! What you see is a bunch of cities. We live like ants, in gigantic urban mounds, going about our business, doing our
    daily chores.

    But urbanization is a recent phenomenon. Barely a century ago, the majority of people in what is now the developed
    world lived in rural areas. How did they get to where they are today? Did they have free will in deciding whether to
    migrate in hordes to the cities? Why didn’t they stay in the farms?

    The truth is that, if we had to do it all over again, we would wind up with the same urbanized society. We simply cannot
    avoid it. The global population increased steadily from the dawn of the Christian era onwards despite wars, starvation,
    and pestilence doing their best to hold our numbers back. Pockets of high density inevitably arise, and high density is
    where discussion and brainstorming take place and new ideas sprout. By the end of the 18th Century, these ideas
    resulted in the beginnings of the mechanization of labor. Several European nations spearhead what is known as the
    Industrial Revolution. Man is replaced by machine, and demand for industrial labor increases at the expense of
    agricultural labor. This process is self-sustaining and exponential. Man manufactures a machine. The machine helps
    the farmer do his job more efficiently. The farmer needs fewer laborers. These idle workers are absorbed by the
    manufacturer of machines.

    You could argue that rural workers have free will and could have chosen to stay on the farms rather than migrate to
    the cities. Individuals make choices; not populations. Remember? The theorist wishes to treat choice as a tactical,
    unpredictable issue.

    However, whether millions will choose to stay where they are guaranteed to have no jobs and to starve is fully
    predictable. Each buffalo has free will and makes his own choice regarding whether to participate in the stampede, but
    the tunnel of determinism leaves them very few options. [1] This is an example of herd behavior or swarm intelligence.
    The individual behaviors of each member result in global patterns. I define behavior as what one animal does. It becomes
    culture when two or more animals behave the same way. Urbanization is necessarily a cultural event. So is the trend
    towards infertility that urbanization brings about.  

    Indeed, the demographic history of Man suspiciously parallels the demographic history of a colony of bacteria:

    “ The first phase of growth is the lag phase, a period of slow growth when the cells
       are adapting to fast growth… The second phase of growth is the logarithmic phase
       (log phase), also known as the exponential phase. The log phase is marked by
       rapid exponential growth… The final phase of growth is the stationary phase and
       is caused by depleted nutrients… The stationary phase is a transition from rapid
       growth to a stress response state” [2]

     “ Microorganisms in a culture dish will grow exponentially, at first, after the first
       microorganism appears (but then logistically until the available food is exhausted,
       when growth stops).” [3]

    “ A logistic function or logistic curve models the S-curve of growth of some set P.
       The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins,
       the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.” [4]

    We have to conclude that the S-shaped demographic curve is universal. And if our numbers were guaranteed to increase
    exponentially, where would Man have lived if not in cities? Can we imagine 6 billion people, each in his plot of land, living
    like Amish farmers? Would we have industrialized in such circumstances?

    Nevertheless, you may argue that urbanization was not predictable. You may not argue that it isn’t a fact. Urbanization is
    currently increasing at a breakneck pace. From 1992 to 2003, almost a billion people worldwide moved from rural areas
    to the city. If we redefine what we mean by ‘urban’, the number could perhaps be greater. [5]  If the demographics of
    bacteria serve as a guide, I guess this means that we have now entered the ‘stress response state’. So much for free will!

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    Last modified 03/03/08


        Copyright © by Nila Gaede 2008
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