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Why God Doesn't Exist
Urbanization was inevitable

    Assume for a moment that you are God and that you can see the entire planet in front of you in a single
    glance. What do you see? Do you see mankind spread out evenly and uniformly across the planet, one
    person per hectare?

    No! What you see is a bunch of cities. We live like ants, in gigantic urban mounds, going about our
    business, doing our daily chores.

    But urbanization is a recent phenomenon. Barely a century ago, the majority of people in what is now the
    developed world lived in rural areas. How did they get to where they are today? Did they have free will in
    deciding whether to migrate in hordes to the cities? Why didn’t they stay in the farms?

    The truth is that, if we had to do it all over again, we would wind up with the same urbanized society. We
    simply cannot avoid it. The global population increased steadily from the dawn of the Christian era
    onwards despite wars, starvation, and pestilence doing their best to hold our numbers back. Pockets of
    high density inevitably arise, and high density is where discussion and brainstorming take place and new
    ideas sprout. By the end of the 18th Century, these ideas resulted in the beginnings of the mechanization
    of labor. Several European nations spearhead what is known as the Industrial Revolution. Man is replaced
    by machine, and demand for industrial labor increases at the expense of agricultural labor. This process
    is self-sustaining and exponential. Man manufactures a machine. The machine helps the farmer do his job
    more efficiently. The farmer needs fewer laborers. These idle workers are absorbed by the manufacturer
    of machines.

    You could argue that rural workers have free will and could have chosen to stay on the farms rather than
    migrate to the cities. Individuals make choices; not populations. Remember? The theorist wishes to treat
    choice as a tactical, unpredictable issue.

    However, whether millions will choose to stay where they are guaranteed to have no jobs and to starve is
    fully predictable. Each buffalo has free will and makes his own choice regarding whether to participate in
    the stampede, but the tunnel of determinism leaves them very few options. [1] This is an example of herd
    behavior or swarm intelligence. The individual behaviors of each member result in global patterns. I define
    behavior as what one animal does. It becomes culture when two or more animals behave the same way.
    Urbanization is necessarily a cultural event. So is the trend towards infertility that urbanization brings
    about.  

    Indeed, the demographic history of Man suspiciously parallels the demographic history of a colony of
    bacteria:

    “ The first phase of growth is the lag phase, a period of slow growth when the cells
       are adapting to fast growth… The second phase of growth is the logarithmic phase
       (log phase), also known as the exponential phase. The log phase is marked by
       rapid exponential growth… The final phase of growth is the stationary phase and
       is caused by depleted nutrients… The stationary phase is a transition from rapid
       growth to a stress response state” [2]

     “ Microorganisms in a culture dish will grow exponentially, at first, after the first
       microorganism appears (but then logistically until the available food is exhausted,
       when growth stops).” [3]

    “ A logistic function or logistic curve models the S-curve of growth of some set P.
       The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins,
       the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.” [4]

    We have to conclude that the S-shaped demographic curve is universal. And if our numbers were
    guaranteed to increase exponentially, where would Man have lived if not in cities? Can we imagine 6
    billion people, each in his plot of land, living like Amish farmers? Would we have industrialized in such
    circumstances?

    Nevertheless, you may argue that urbanization was not predictable. You may not argue that it isn’t a fact.
    Urbanization is currently increasing at a breakneck pace. From 1992 to 2003, almost a billion people
    worldwide moved from rural areas to the city. If we redefine what we mean by ‘urban’, the number could
    perhaps be greater. [5]  If the demographics of bacteria serve as a guide, I guess this means that we have
    now entered the ‘stress response state’. So much for free will!

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    Last modified 03/03/08


        Copyright © by Nila Gaede 2008
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